There are many bearish factors in the fundamentals, and lead prices retreated after a rapid rise. [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,090/mt, holding up well during the Asian session and touching a high of $2,093.5/mt; it fluctuated downward upon entering the European session. The US government reopened and released disappointing economic data, causing LME lead to drop to a low of $2,073.5/mt by the close, down 0.81%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2512 contract opened at 17,670 yuan/mt, briefly touching a high of 17,695 yuan/mt at the start of the session. It weakened due to bearish factors in the spot fundamentals, eventually closing at a low of 17,584 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt or 0.54%, forming a small bearish candlestick with no lower shadow.

On the macro front:

On Thursday, as the US government reopened, the US dollar index continued to decline, briefly falling below the 99 mark, and finally closed down 0.29% at 99.18. Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in US history. Trump stated that the shutdown caused $1.5 trillion in losses, and it would take weeks or even months to fully calculate the overall impact. US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said the October employment report will be released soon but will not include the unemployment rate. He expects Q4 GDP to drop 1.5% due to the shutdown and sees few reasons not to cut interest rates. European financial stability officials discussed mechanisms to replace US Fed dollar liquidity support to reduce reliance on the US under Trump's administration.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang will attend the 24th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the 20th G20 Leaders' Summit and pay an official visit to Zambia. The Ministry of Commerce stated that China implements export controls on rare-earth-related items in accordance with laws and regulations. The People's Bank of China reported that the outstanding social financing stock was 437.72 trillion yuan at the end of October 2025, up 8.5% YoY. The broad money (M2) balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, up 8.2% YoY. The narrow money (M1) balance was 112 trillion yuan, up 6.2% YoY.

:

Yesterday, SHFE lead rose sharply, surging to 17,815 yuan/mt during the session. The spread between futures and spot prices widened further, strengthening suppliers' willingness to ship to delivery warehouses. Warrant quotations were scarce as suppliers waited for delivery. Meanwhile, primary lead smelters also held prices firm for sales, with quotations from major producing areas at premiums of 50-150 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Some traders purchased for delivery, but downstream enterprises adopted a wait-and-see approach, purchasing cautiously with few inquiries. Yesterday, the number of spot order quotations for secondary refined lead increased, and suppliers' willingness to sell rose significantly. Due to downstream battery producers' reluctance to purchase at high prices, some secondary refined lead offers widened their discounts, with spot order mainstream prices at a discount of 120-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, and mainstream ex-factory offers excluding tax at 16,100-16,200 yuan/mt.

Inventory side: On November 12, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,250 mt to 223,975 mt; as of November 13, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 34,900 mt, up 3,100 mt from November 6 and up 2,200 mt from November 10.

Today's lead price forecast:

With only two trading days left until the delivery of the SHFE lead 2511 contract, lead ingots for delivery are arriving at warehouses successively, and social inventory of lead ingots continues to rise. Additionally, based on the open interest of the SHFE lead 2511 contract, the delivery volume of lead ingots this time is estimated to be around 15,000 mt. In the past two days, SHFE lead surged significantly, and the spread between futures and spot prices widened, prompting some suppliers to intend to increase shipments to delivery warehouses. It is expected that social inventory of lead ingots will still see some increase before next week's delivery. Overall, be cautious of the drag from rising social inventory of lead ingots on lead price trends.

Data source statement: Except for public information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.